total fertility rate ( TFR ), sometimes also called fertility rate , absolute/potential natality , total fertility time ( PTFR ), or total fertility time ( TPFR ) population is the average number of child- the child to be born by a woman during her lifetime if:
- He's experiencing the current specific fertility rate (ASFR) through his lifetime, and
- He survived from birth to the end of his reproductive life.
This is obtained by summing the age-specific tariff of one year at a given time.
Video Total fertility rate
Characteristics of parameters
TFR is a synthetic level, not based on any female group's fertility because it will involve waiting until they are done giving birth. Nor is it based on counting the total number of children actually born during their lifetime. In contrast, TFR is based on female specific fertility rates in their "year of delivery", which in the use of conventional international statistics is aged 15-44 or 15-49.
TFR is, therefore, the size of an imaginary female fertility that passes through its reproductive life is subject to all age-specific fertility rates for ages 15-49 years recorded for a particular population in the year certain. TFR represents the average number of children a woman will potentially have, whether she is to fast-forward through all the fertile years of the year, under all the age-specific fertility levels for that year. In other words, this figure is the number of children a woman will have if she is subject to the fertility level that applies to all ages of a given year, and endures throughout her fertile years.
Maps Total fertility rate
Related parameters
Clean reproduction rate
The alternative fertility measure is the net reproductive rate (NRR), which measures the amount of daughters that a woman has in her life if she is subject to fertility and specific age-specific apostasy fits tariffs in a given year. When NRR is exactly one , then every generation of women will reproduce itself. NRR is less commonly used than TFR, and the United Nations stopped reporting NRR data for member states after 1998. But NRR is highly relevant where the number of boys born is very high due to gender imbalances and sex selection. This is a significant factor in the world population, due to the high level of gender imbalances in the very populous countries of China and India. The gross reproduction rate (GRR), is the same as the NRR, except that - like TFR - it ignores life expectancy.
Total fertility rate
TFR (or TPFR - total time fertility rate) is a better fertility index than the crude birthrate (number of births per thousand population per year) because it does not depend on the age structure of the population, but a worse estimate of the actual full family size of the total level cohort births, obtained by summing up the age-specific fertility rate that actually applies to each group as they grow over time. In particular, TFR does not necessarily predict how many young girls will ultimately have, as their fertility rates in the coming years may change from older women now. However, TFR is a reasonable summary of the current fertility rate.
Tempo Effect
TPFR (total fertility rate ) is affected by tempo effect - if the age of childbearing increases (and the fertility of the life cycle does not change) then as the childbirth increases, the TPFR will become lower (due to later births) and then fertile age stops increasing, TPFR increases (due to delayed births occurring in later periods) although life cycle fertility remains unchanged. In other words, TPFR is a misleading measure of the fertility of the life cycle when fertile age changes, because of these statistical artifacts. This is a significant factor in some countries, such as the Czech Republic and Spain in the 1990s. Several steps try to adjust for this time effect to get a better life cycle of fertility.
Replacement parts
Substitute fertility is the total fertility rate in which women give birth to enough babies to maintain the population level.
If there is no death in the female population from birth through the end of the fertile year, the rate of replacement of TFR will be very close to 2.0. Substitute fertility rates are indeed only slightly above 2.0 births per woman for most industrialized countries (2.075 in the UK, for example), but ranges from 2.5 to 3.3 in developing countries due to higher mortality rates, especially deaths child. The global average for total fertility rate replacement (leading to a stable global population) was 2.33 children per woman in 2003.
Low-low fertility
The term "lowest-low fertility" is defined as TFR at or below 1.3. It is characteristic of several countries of Eastern Europe, Southern Europe and East Asia. In 2001, more than half of Europe's population lived in countries with the lowest TFR lows, but TFR has since increased slightly there.
Population-lag effect
Populations maintaining TFR 3.8 during extended periods without high mortality or emigration rates will increase rapidly (32-year copying periods), whereas populations maintaining TFR 2.0 for prolonged periods will decline, unless sufficient immigration big. However, it may take several generations for a change in the total fertility rate to be reflected in the birth rate, since the age distribution must reach equilibrium. For example, populations that have just dropped below sub-fertility rates will continue to grow, as recent high fertility generates many young couples who will now be in their child-bearing years.
This phenomenon has continued for several generations and is called the population momentum, population inertia or population-lag effects . The effect of this time lag is very important for the growth rate of the human population.
TFR (net) and long-term population growth rate, g, are closely related. For the population structure in stable state and with zero migration, g equals log (TFR/2)/Xm, where Xm is the mean age for women giving birth and thus P (t) = P (0) exp (gt). On the left is shown an empirical relationship between two variables in a cross-section of countries with the latest y-y growth rates. Parameter 1/b must be an approximate Xm; here equals 1/0,02 = 50 years, away from the target because of the population momentum. For example. for log (TFR/2) = 0, g should be exactly zero, which looks no problem.
Developed or developing countries
Developed countries typically have much lower fertility rates, often correlated with greater wealth, education, urbanization, or other factors. Low mortality rates, KB is understood and easily accessible, and costs are often considered very high due to education, clothing, food, and social facilities. With wealth, contraception becomes affordable. In countries like Iran where contraception is subsidized before the economy accelerates, birth rates also decline rapidly. Furthermore, a longer period of time spent attaining higher education often means women have children later on. Women's labor force participation rates also have a large negative impact on fertility, but not in all countries (for OECD countries, increased female labor participation is associated with increased fertility).
In undeveloped countries on the other hand, families want children for their jobs and as carers for their parents in old age. Fertility rates are also higher due to lack of access to contraceptives, stricter adherence to traditional religious beliefs, generally lower female education levels, and lower rates of female employment in industry. The total world fertility rate has dropped very rapidly since the 1990s. Some forecasters such as Sanjeev Sanyal argue that, adjusted for gender imbalances, effective global fertility will fall below the level of replacement by the 2020s. This will stabilize the world's population by 2050, which is much faster than the UN Population Division expected.
The situation of these rich countries typically have lower fertility rates than poor countries is part of the income-fertility paradox, because very high fertility states are very poor, and may seem counter-intuitive for families there to have so many kids. The inverse relationship between income and fertility has been referred to as the "paradoxical" demographic-economy by the idea that greater means will enable the production of more offspring, as first suggested by demographic scholar Thomas Malthus in 1798.
Politics
Governments often set population targets, either to increase or decrease the total fertility rate; or have certain ethnic or socioeconomic groups have a lower fertility rate. Often such policies are interventionist, and rude. The most famous Christmasist policies of the 20th century included those in communist Romania and communist Albanians, under Nicolae Ceau? Escu and Enver Hoxha. The Romanian policy (1967-1990) is very aggressive, including banning abortion and contraception, routine pregnancy tests for women, childless taxes, and legal discrimination against non-children; and resulted in a large number of children being put into Romanian orphanage by parents who could not cope with raising them, street children in the 1990s (when many orphanages were closed and children ended up in the streets), jostling at home and schools, and over 9,000 women who died of illegal abortion. In contrast, in China the government sought to lower the fertility rate, and, thus, adopted the one-child policy (1978-2015), which included offenses such as forced abortion. Several governments have sought to regulate which peoples can breed through the forced sterilization policies of 'undesirable' population groups. Such a policy was made against ethnic minorities in Europe and North America in the first half of the 20th century, and more recently in Latin America against indigenous populations in the 1990s; in Peru, President Alberto Fujimori (in the office from 1990 to 2000) has been charged with genocide and crimes against humanity as a result of a sterilization program implemented by his government targeting indigenous peoples (especially the Quechu and Aymaras tribes). In this historical context, the idea of ​​reproductive rights has developed. Such rights are based on the concept that everyone freely decides whether, when, and how many children they have - not the state or the church. According to OHCHR's reproductive rights "rests on the recognition of the fundamental rights of all couples and individuals to decide freely and responsibly the number, distance and time of their children and to have information and means to do so, and the right to achieve the highest standards of sexual and It also includes the right to make informed decisions about the free reproduction of discrimination, coercion and violence, as stated in the human rights document ".
United States
The total fertility rate in the US after World War II peaked at about 3.8 children per woman in the late 1950s and in 1999 was in 2 children. The total fertility rate of the US population was just below the replacement level of about 1.9 children per woman in 1979. However, the fertility of the population of the United States under surrogates among those born native, and above the replacement among immigrant families, most of them coming to the US from countries with higher fertility than the US. However, immigrant fertility rates to the US have been found to fall sharply in the second generation, which is associated with increased education and income. As early as 2016, there were 59.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44; this is the lowest number since the recording was stored since 1909.
The world's extreme weakness
The lowest recorded TFR anywhere in the world in recorded history is for the Xiangyang district of Jiamusi city (Heilongjiang, China) which has a TFR of 0.41. Outside of China, the lowest TFR ever recorded was 0.80 for East Germany in 1994. Low East Germany values ​​were influenced by changes to a higher age at birth, with the consequence that no older group (eg women born until the late 1960s), who often had children, or younger groups, who often gave birth at a higher age (ie after 1994), had many children during that time. The total cohort rate for each age group of women in East Germany did not fall significantly.
Europe
The average total fertility rate in the EU (EU-28) is calculated at 1.58 children per woman by 2015. Most Southern European countries have very low TFR (Portugal 1.31, Cyprus, 1.32, Greece 1.33, Spain 1.33, Italy 1.35). Poland also has a very low TFR (1.32). France has the highest TFR at 1.96, followed by Ireland (1.92), Sweden (1.85), England (1.80), Denmark (1.71). Other non-EU Scandinavian countries also have high TFR (Iceland 1.80, Norway 1.72).
In a non-EU post-EU European country by 2016, Russia has TFR 1.61, Moldova 1.56, Ukraine 1.54, and Belarus 1.48. In the former Yugoslavia, Bosnia has a very low TFR, only 1.28, the lowest of all Europe.
Emigration of young adults from Eastern Europe to the West exacerbates the demographic problems of these countries. People from countries like Moldova, Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria specifically moved abroad.
East Asia
TFR Singapore, Macau, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea are the lowest in the world, with Singapore and Macau having TFR below 1 in 2017. Japan also has low TFR (1.45 in 2016). Singapore alleviates this through immigrant workers, but in Japan there is a serious demographic problem.
In South Korea too, low birth rates are one of the most pressing socio-economic challenges. Increased housing costs, decreased employment opportunities for younger generations, inadequate support for families with newborns either from the government or the workplace is one of the main explanations for TFR crawling, from 1.08 in 2005 to 1.17 in 2016. Korea has not found a viable solution. to make rebound rebirths, even after trying dozens of programs over a decade, including subsidized maintenance costs, giving priority to public rental housing for couples with multiple children, funding daycare centers, ordering seats on public transport for pregnant women, etc.
Africa
This region of the world has the highest TFR (Niger, Burundi, Mali, Somalia, and Uganda are the highest). Poverty in this region, and high maternal mortality and infant mortality have led to calls from WHO for family planning and encouragement from smaller families.
Factor
The number of parent's children is highly correlated with the number of children that everyone in the next generation will eventually have. Factors commonly associated with increased fertility include religiosity, the intention to have children, and maternal support. Factors commonly associated with fertility decline include wealth, education, the participation of female workers, urban dwellings, intelligence, widespread use of birth control, increased female age and (to a lesser extent) increased male age. Yet many of these factors are not universal, and differ by region and social class. For example, on a global level, religion is correlated with increased fertility, but in the West it is less: Scandinavian and French countries are among the least religious in the EU but have the highest TFR, while the opposite is true of Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Poland, and Spain.
Fertility Tariff Table
List of sovereign states and dependencies with total fertility
See also
- Birth rate
- Demographics
- Optimum population
- Controversy on fertility development
- Overpopulation
- Excess human population
Dynamics:
- Fertility and intelligence
- Revenue and fertility
- Substitutes for fertility
- The population growth is zero
Case study:
- European Aging
- Japanese age
List:
- List of countries and dependencies sovereign by total fertility rate
- Total fertility rate in the UK by county authorities/unity
- Number of fertility rates by Russian federal subjects
- List of US states and territories by fertility level
- List of Mexican states based on fertility rate
- The Indian state is ranked according to fertility rate
- List of people with most children
- List of African administrative subdivisions by fertility level
- List of Southeast Asian administrative subdivisions based on fertility level
References
- Bulatao, Rodolfo (1984). Reducing Fertility in Developing Countries . Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ISBNÃ, 0-8213-0444-5.
External links
- The World Factbook of Total Fertility Rate table is ordered by country rating
- Eurostat - Statistics Explained: Fertility statistics (data October 2011)
- Population Reference Bureau Glossary Population
- Simulation of All Java Fertility.
- Java Simulation from Population Dynamics.
- How to Change Fertility in All Generations of Immigrants.
- Trend of Fertility, Wedding Patterns, and Savant Typology.
- Human Fertility Database: A collection of age-specific fertility levels for some developed countries.
Source of the article : Wikipedia
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